LAST week, I speculated about what "ransom" the Obama administration may have had ex-President Bill Clinton promise to win the release of Laura Ling and Euna Lee from the North Korean regime.
It didn't take long to learn at least the first concession. President Obama has broken with past US policy to agree to bilateral talks with North Korea -- a diplomatic plum that Kim Jong Il has sought for years, and a major coup in his attempt to nail down the succession of his 26-year-old son, Kim Jong Un.
While the administration maintains that Clinton (in the words of National Security Adviser James Jones) "passed no official messages and made no promises during his mission," it appears, as columnist Charles Krauthammer noted, "We are for the first time in memory hearing the truth from North Korean news agencies and lies from the White House."
Of course, the handover of hostages Ling and Lee had clearly been negotiated before Clinton left for Pyongyang. It's thus entirely possible that White House negotiators had offered bilateral talks in advance, with the offer affirmed in Clinton's three-hour meeting with Kim.
Jones reinforced this in comments to ABC News, saying, "We have coordinated all of this by the way with the other allies -- the Chinese, the Russians, the South Koreans, the Japanese." In fact, genuine coordination would require considerably more diplomacy than could be mounted in the days since Clinton's return. So it's most likely we simply informed those "allies" of a fait accompli -- a slap in the face for our actual allies (South Korea, Japan), and cause for triumphal smiles for the Chinese and Russians.
Russia and China have already successfully tested Obama and found him wanting. He has already taken human-rights and dollar-exchange-rate issues off the table with China. And he happily traded missile defense in Eastern Europe for a tentative nuclear-forces-reduction agreement that actually benefits Russian revival of Cold War-era arms reduction, plus a Russian promise (easily revoked) to provide an overland supply route for our forces in Afghanistan.
Watching the administration cave to Kim over two female journalists can only whet appetites for future concessions from the American naifs.
Meanwhile, officials in Seoul and Tokyo are wondering what, if any, security measures they can reasonably rely on America to provide in time of genuine crisis. Can full recognition of North Korea be far away?
South Korea, having abandoned the fruitless appeasement efforts of its previous "Sunshine Policy" (derided as the "Shoeshine Policy" by detractors) now watches helplessly as the US morphs from trusted ally to North Korean patsy.
Expect both countries to rely increasingly on internal resources for defense. Will they feel obliged to opt for a nuclear capability of their own?
Meanwhile, expect the coming bilateral talks to bring more US concessions on donations of fuel, food and medical assistance -- plus some trade concessions and the removal of export restrictions. In return, we'll get fresh North Korean promises to cease nuclear and missile development -- promises sure to prove to be as empty now as every time the regime made them previously.
Do not expect Obama to express outrage over the vast counterfeiting, narcotics and espionage empire that Kim has built. And forget about human rights for the oppressed North Korean people. Even before her husband's visit, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had taken that off the table as "unhelpful" to solution of the nuclear issues.
The lesson is now clear to America's enemies: Just push a little, and Obama will give you all you want.
Gordon Cucullu, a former Army lieutenant colonel, is author of "Separated at Birth: How North Korea Became the Evil Twin." His latest book is "Inside Gitmo.", NY Post, 8/11/09
